Dion van den Berg, our Western Balkans expert, moderated the conversation between two prominent thinkers from the region – Dinko Gruhonjić, Adnan Ćerimagić – and Robert Bosch, who stepped in last minute to replace Donika Emini.
Dinko Gruhonjić, a Serbian journalist and professor at the University of Novi Sad, spoke with hope about the student protests in Serbia. ‘From what I observed, in March, half a million people took to the streets against corruption and for the restoration of morality in politics and society.’ The younger generation is doing something interesting. For the first time, they are reclaiming national symbols—not as expressions of nationalist narratives, as often happened in the past, but to declare: “Serbia belongs to us.” Gruhonjić sees a hopeful future in this generation. They are paving the way for true democracy. He also predicts the end of Vučić: ‘It’s time for us to follow them. Reform should not be top-down but from the grassroots – bottom-up.’
On the EU’s role, Gruhonjić’ message is clear: ‘Your support for autocrats does not help us, so leave us alone if that’s Brussels’ approach. But even better would be for the EU to support the students – simply by stating that the demands of the protest movement align with the reforms Serbia needs to undergo to join the EU.’
Adnan Ćerimagić, a Bosnian analyst at the European Stability Initiative (ESI), discussed the increasingly unconstitutional actions of Milorad Dodik. ‘What Dodik is doing is no longer just provocation in words. He is deploying police forces, challenging the judiciary. It’s a dangerous escalation.’ An international arrest warrant has been issued for Dodik, but he’s avoiding it and still visiting his allies: Netanyahu, Vučić, and Putin.
The EU is hesitant to act. The reasons why are security concerns and the political support required for the mandate of European military forces in Bosnia. ‘If international support for extending the EUFOR mission falls away, we’ll have a serious problem.’ And so, we end up in a situation where ‘the EU speaks big words, but without action, everything could collapse.’
Ćerimagić noted that the protests in Serbia are getting attention and support in Republika Srpska, but simply copying them wouldn’t work. ‘Each country has its own culture when it comes to organizing protests.’
So where does the hope for Bosnia lie? According to Ćerimagić, the nationalist narrative must be countered with an inclusive, solidarity-based European narrative. But for that to happen, the EU must choose democracy over stability. ‘It’s not enough to criticize behind closed doors. The EU must voice its criticism publicly. Citizens need to see that the EU condemns their politicians’ behavior.’ When there is concrete action from EU member states – especially from unexpected corners, like the Dutch parliamentary motion to explore sanctions against Dodik -it does have real impact, Ćerimagić says.
Robert Bosch, former Dutch ambassador to Kosovo, reflected on how Kosovars feel abandoned. ‘Kosovo remains isolated. It’s not a UN member due to blockades by Russia and China. And while the EU promotes dialogue, it sees Serbia as the regional powerhouse—and thus the more important partner.’ Kosovo is making progress in reforms and should be better rewarded for it.
Although the Western Balkans suffer from populist leaders, reduced U.S. funding for civil society, and inconsistent EU support, there is still hope. Our speakers from the region see potential in the younger generation, who no longer have direct memories of the wars and are committed to democracy. It’s time for a vision of inclusive peace rather than nationalism. That also means organizations in EU member states must hold their own governments accountable for their implicit or explicit support of authoritarian leaders in the Balkans.
We can support partners in the Balkans – but we must also intensify lobbying efforts in EU capitals and Brussels.
This event was organised by:
