Is the war in Ukraine still in an active phase – and are civilians being affected at the same scale?
Yes, Russia’s full-scale war of aggression is ongoing and active, both with fighting continuing along the 1,200 km-long front line and Russia’s daily long-range missile and drone attacks affecting civilians across Ukraine. The fact that daily newsfeeds show fewer mentions of developments in Ukraine does not mean the violence has slowed down. In fact, 2025 was reported as the deadliest year for civilians in Ukraine since 2022. This winter has been particularly harsh for Ukrainians. Amid the extremely cold weather conditions, Russia resumed large-scale, coordinated strikes on energy facilities nationwide. This has disrupted access to electricity, heating, water, and other essentials for millions of people, severely exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.
While there have been no major breakthroughs on the battlefield for either side in recent months, Russia’s invasion has increasingly taken the form of a war of attrition. In this strategy, civilian infrastructure and livelihoods are deliberately targeted as a tactic to exhaust Ukraine’s defence capacity.
But there are peace negotiations under way now, right? What can be expected of them?
Indeed, discussions around a potential peace agreement for Russia’s war against Ukraine have intensified in recent months, shaped by increased US diplomatic involvement. However, despite some reported progress in these negotiations, fundamental disagreements remain unresolved – notably on territorial questions, security guarantees for Ukraine, and how any ceasefire would be enforced and monitored.
The risks are high that Ukraine could be pressured into an unjust settlement that would undermine its sovereignty and long-term security. The fact that Russia is escalating attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure while these talks are taking place raises serious doubts about good faith to conclude negotiations. Of course, agreements on issues such as new rounds of prisoner-of-war exchanges are welcome. They underline the importance of keeping diplomatic channels open. However, there is little reason to expect a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement to emerge from these talks in the near term.
Why can’t Ukraine “just agree to a compromise” with Russia to stop the war?
A “compromise” usually implies meeting halfway. But in a war of aggression, the starting positions are fundamentally unequal: Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is the victim of an illegal invasion. This war is rooted in Russia’s colonial ambition to subjugate Ukraine and deny its sovereignty, identity, and freedom to choose its own future. That is not something a country can be expected to “compromise” on. Doing so would reward aggression and provide a blow to the international legal order, paving the way for other wars of conquest.
Take one concrete example raised repeatedly in current debate: demands that Ukraine cede control over territories Russia has not even conquered. This would mean giving up some of Ukraine’s most fortified defensive positions – making it harder to protect people from renewed invasion. This would also effectively legitimize Russia’s occupation, which has already revealed itself in severe oppression, terror and widespread human rights abuses in territories that have fallen under Russian control since 2014. Agreeing to such compromises would not help to protect civilians; ensuring human security should be of utmost importance.
What is actually needed to end the war and restore peace in Ukraine?
We have repeatedly emphasized that it is up to Ukraine to decide if, when, and what it is willing to negotiate. Any settlement must put people first and uphold civilian protection, international law, accountability, and credible security for the future. This requires providing political, economic and military support for Ukraine, while ensuring that international standards apply to arms deliveries. At the same time, it is critical to undermine Russia’s ability to wage its aggression by weakening its wartime economy, increasing diplomatic pressure on the Kremlin, and supporting anti-war groups within and outside Russia. Assistance for Ukraine’s self-defense will never be sufficient unless Russia’s offensive capabilities are disrupted.
However, for a sustainable and inclusive peace, efforts should go well beyond the cessation of hostilities. It is crucial to support Ukraine’s reconstruction and economic recovery, deliver justice for the victims, and ensure full accountability of Russia for the damage inflicted and for war crimes committed – both in legal and financial terms. The Ukrainian population, in all its diversity, should have a role in shaping both the peace settlement and recovery processes. Ukraine’s recovery should be closely aligned with Ukraine’s EU integration, with further strengthening of the rule of law and structural reforms – including empowerment of local communities through decentralization.
Why are the developments in Ukraine so critical for peace and security in Europe overall?
Because Ukraine is not only defending its own territory: it is resisting an aggressor whose actions are rooted in authoritarianism, imperial ambition, and the primacy of power over law. Russia’s political regime goes against foundational principles on which contemporary Europe is built. This includes sovereign equality and territorial integrity of states, respect for international norms and institutions, human rights, democracy, and the peaceful settlement of disputes. A Russian victory, or a “peace deal” imposed on Russian terms, would normalize aggression. It would also further embolden further hybrid attacks on European societies and increase risks of a military confrontation for the EU’s eastern states.
Within Russia, achieving its objectives in Ukraine would only strengthen the regime’s grip on power, effectively preventing an emergence of any political alternative and reinforcing a system in which external aggression and internal repression mutually sustain one another. At the same time, without a lasting peace in Ukraine, the humanitarian crisis will only aggravate, with spill-over effects across Europe. Therefore, Europe has a critical role to play in securing a just peace settlement for Ukraine and acting as a stabilizer in the region in the post-conflict period.
What can I do on an individual level to support Ukraine?
While it is easy to feel powerless watching the horrors of the war continue, there are still concrete things each of us can do to support Ukraine and people affected by the violence:
- Show solidarity
Public attention matters. Taking part in peaceful demonstrations, public discussions, or community events helps counter fatigue and normalization of violence. It sends a clear signal to decision-makers that people continue to care about civilian suffering, accountability, and peace that does not reward aggression. Join us at the Dam in Amsterdam on February 22 for a manifestation to commemorate the fourth anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion. - Support people affected by the war in practical ways
This can include donating to trusted humanitarian and rights-based organizations, supporting Ukrainian-led initiatives, or contributing to efforts that provide protection, psychosocial support, legal aid, and assistance to displaced people. Solidarity is most meaningful when it centers people’s dignity and long-term needs. - Speak up for principled policies and challenge disinformation
Engaging with elected representatives, supporting policies grounded in international law, and challenging misleading narratives in everyday conversations all matter. Upholding facts and naming aggression for what it is helps protect the principles that peace in Europe is built on.
Read more about PAX’s position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and about our past work in Ukraine.
