In line with its own values, Europe must commit to peace. Security is part of that, but it is not enough. Now that the United States is no longer a reliable ally and the threat of autocracy (military and political) is growing, an integrated response is needed. Our goal must be peace. To achieve that, we need a political strategy that is not solely based on deterrence but also invests in diplomacy, international cooperation, and democratic rule of law.
The new NATO standard
On 24 and 25 June, government leaders from Europe, the U.S., and Canada will gather for the NATO Summit in The Hague. Trump and Rutte have focused on one main question: what percentage should become the new “NATO norm”? Trump demands that the norm be raised from 2% to 5% of GDP. For the Netherlands, this would mean €55 billion—more than double the current defence budget of €22 billion. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte supports Trump’s position but proposes that 1.5% of this amount be allocated to investments in infrastructure and other areas indirectly related to the proper functioning of defence. Even then, our defence budget (at 3.5%) would rise by €19 billion. A majority in the Dutch House of Representatives supports this plan.
Don’t focus solely on percentages
However, the political debate has become overly fixated on these percentages instead of addressing the underlying question: what is actually needed? The proposed investment is of such magnitude that it would significantly contribute to an uncontrolled arms race. This would make arms control more difficult. Of course, such investments also places enormous pressure on our economy and public spending. Moreover, this massive defence investment reduces our capacity to enhance social, political, and economic resilience. And it is precisely this weakness that other countries, including Russia, have exploited in recent years.
The ball is in the European Union’s court
PAX recognizes the need for investments in defence and security. Under Trump, the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally. The European Union must take the lead—together with other European countries, including Ukraine—in forming its own inclusive security strategy. This strategy must be an integral part of a broader political strategy focused on peace. Furthermore, it is essential to invest in such a way that our dependency on the United States decreases. Finally, investments in our own peace and security should not result in less peace and security elsewhere. Therefore, PAX proposes an integrated security policy based on the following four pillars:
Diplomacy and Dialogue
- Invest in diplomatic capacity. Appoint an EU envoy for Ukraine.
- Restore our credibility as a defender of international law—for example, by holding Israel much more strongly accountable for its repeated violations.
- Actively explore opportunities for dialogue with Russia on arms control and non-proliferation.
International Cooperation
- Invest in fair trade relations.
- Invest in development cooperation focused on peacebuilding, conflict prevention, and strengthening democratic legal systems. Europe should show the same ambition for peacebuilding as it does for defence spending.
- Continue to support Ukraine militarily, politically, and through humanitarian aid.
Democracy, Rule of Law, and Social Cohesion
- Acknowledge that hybrid threats undermine the democratic legal order and social cohesion.
- Strengthen European societies’ resilience against such threats.
- Support and reinforce democratic forces worldwide, as a counterbalance to the concentration of political, military, media, and economic power in the hands of autocrats and oligarchs.
Defence and Arms Control
- Responsible defence investments must primarily focus on European autonomy, civilian protection, and international law. This requires strategic choices, not an unsubstantiated adoption of a 5% norm.
- Ensure that defence and arms industry investments have a moral foundation; prevent the production of banned weapons such as landmines and the sale of arms to countries that violate human rights.
- Defence investments must be accompanied by strong democratic oversight of the defence industry and strict requirements that this industry adhere to responsible business conduct.
