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Amidst the drought and dust, Syria awaits an uncertain future

With the gradual reopening of the war-stricken country, a fragile sense of hope is beginning to take shape for sustainable recovery. PAX visited Syria in November to speak with partners, national and local authorities, participate in the European Union-led Day of Dialogue, and visit heavily affected areas to better understand the current challenges linked to conflict, climate, and the environment.

Image: Wim Zwijnenburg/PAX - Destroyed buildings at Yarmouk, Damascus

With the end of a brutal nearly 14-year war and the gradual reopening of the war-stricken country, a fragile sense of hope is beginning to take shape for sustainable recovery. That road nevertheless remains long and fraught with obstacles. PAX visited Syria in November to speak with partners, national and local authorities, participate in the European Union-led Day of Dialogue, and visit heavily affected areas to better understand the current challenges linked to conflict, climate, and the environment. Between the ruins of towns and neighbourhoods, as well as in meeting rooms, we encountered both voices of hope and deep concern about the road ahead.

Large parts of Syria have suffered extensive destruction across cities and towns, with millions displaced and without homes to return to, while conflict and climate-linked pressure on natural resources such as water and fossil fuels continue to pose serious socio-economic and security challenges. The new transitional government led by Ahmad Al Sharaa faces enormous challenges in restoring stability and initiating the rebuilding process. Not only as there are barely functioning institutions with limited staff and lack of expertise and capacity, but also no major donors have as of yet started to invest in recovery and reconstruction. This is largely due to sanctions, limited bureaucratic oversight, and insufficient state capacity to implement projects with robust anti-corruption measures in place.

The poor state of public services and severely damaged critical infrastructure further dampens the appetite of donors and international companies to explore investment opportunities.  For Syrians willing to return, the current state of the country offers little incentive. With high unemployment, limited economic opportunities, and degraded living conditions caused by pollution, destruction, and water shortages compounded by rising temperatures, a bold and innovative plan of action is urgently needed.

The broader story of environmental harm in Syria can be illustrated through the lens of Zabadani, a small town with around 26,000 inhabitants located roughly 30 kilometres northwest of Damascus. During the uprising against Assad from 2012 onwards, the town was the first being taken over by the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the rebel group that took up arms against the regime.  The FSA put up fierce resistance as Assad’s army, supported by the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, pounded the town with heavy weapons, causing widespread destruction. In 2017, following a prolonged siege and sustained bombardments, opposition members were forced to leave under a surrender agreement. After the Assad regime re-occupied the area, its forces supported by Hezbollah, carried out further destruction.

Water is the future

The town is located in a lush green valley between the Lebanese border and mountains to the west and the Jabal Al Shaqif mountain range to the east, where agriculture and tourism were once the main sources of income for its inhabitants. The valley was covered with orchards with apple, pear and plum trees as far as the eye could see, tells Mahmoud, a 56-year-old farmer who returned to his hometown in 2023 after he fled to Lebanon in 2015. He invites us over for coffee and sweets when we stop at his farm and share his story. During the peak of the fighting in 2015, heavy shelling using explosive weapons destroyed large parts of the town, leaving a trail of destruction. The Syrian army feared that rebels were hiding in the trees, and with support from Hezbollah razed most of the orchards to the ground. These impacts are also clearly visible on satellite imagery, showing the before-and-after landscape and deforestation caused by Assad and Hezbollah.

Mahmoud points over the fields behind his house, where he used to have 4,000 m² of agricultural land that was once full of trees. The view is now of barren land, but farmers began planting saplings three years ago and small stems have started to grow again. During a meeting with the City Council Manager of Zabadani, Mr Samir Darweesh, he stated that an estimated 1.5 million fruit trees in the area were cut down during the peak of the war by the Syrian army and its militias. The consequences were deeply felt among the farming communities, as 70% of the people in the area work in agriculture. Water wells were filled with debris, and pipelines and pumping stations were destroyed, making agricultural recovery more difficult. Mahmoud now only uses small parts of the land close to a neighbour’s well to grow beans and courgettes, as damage to water infrastructure limits irrigation.

A few kilometres south, at the outskirts of the town of Madaya, Mohammed Abbas, manager of the water treatment plant, describes the challenges they faced because of the war, but also the opportunities he sees for a new Syria. According to the local authorities, they estimated that 20–25% of the water infrastructure was damaged during the fighting and shelling from the start of the revolution until it was retaken by Assad’s troops, severely degrading irrigated agriculture.Prior to the war, the facility’s capacity to treat sewage water from the nearby towns reached 12,000 litres per day for reuse in agriculture. Yet the damage to pipelines has now reduced this to 4,000 litres per day. Another problem is caused by the limited reach, as it only provides farms around Madaya, and they don’t have the capacity to pump the treated wastewater back to Zabadani, which would require building new pumping stations, for which they lack funding. This means that local farmers in Zabadani resort to groundwater use for irrigation. Groundwater levels, however, are dropping fast due to an increase in droughts, limited rainfall and an increase in illegal well drilling. Mr Darweesh confirmed that there is no oversight or monitoring of well drilling, which is one of the main causes of the drop in groundwater levels, which in 2025 fell by 30 metres. This issue also has far-reaching consequences as the aquifer supplies Damascus with groundwater. Recent news stories on the drought hitting Wadi Barada, another important source of water for Damascus, have set off alarm bells over the implications for the city’s water security.

The reverberating effects of explosive violence 

Driving through Zabadani the destruction is very visible with half destroyed houses showing the impacts of explosive weapons that rained down on the town, from rockets to artillery and mortar rounds. Yet slowly life is returning, as between the ruins shops reopen, debris is removed and reconstruction efforts, even though small, are increasing. The former Syrian Civil Defence (or better known as the White Helmets) that have now established a newly formed Ministry for Emergency and Disaster Management, already started with rubble removal, making roads accessible for cars, trucks and emergency services. 

The depletion of groundwater levels and rising fuel costs for diesel generators used to pump water have also led farmers to give up and move away, leaving only those with financial support, often from relatives and friends abroad, able to continue. He is concerned about the wider impacts of climate change on agriculture, as droughts are getting worse, particularly since 2023.  Despite the challenges, Mahmoud remains hopeful, believing that major improvements under the new government have made agricultural logistics easier.

There are discussions around a new loan system that would allow farmers to access credit to buy seeds and repay after harvest, without the constant fear that crops will be destroyed by shelling or deliberate fires, as occurred repeatedly in the past. New machinery, solar panels, and drip irrigation, he believes, represent the future, and he expects over 30% of farmers to return to their land.When asked what gives him hope, he laughs and says: ‘What other option do I have?’

Similar post-apocalyptic scenes are also visible in various suburbs around Damascus where PAX visited Yarmouk Camp, which became a battleground between the Free Syrian Army and other militias, including the Islamic State, while simultaneously being bombarded by Syrian government forces. Intense fighting and indiscriminate shelling — including cluster munitions, barrel bombs, and artillery — turned the unofficial Palestinian refugee camp into a ghost town, with most buildings severely damaged or destroyed.

In some houses, makeshift water pipelines and improvised electricity cables now sustain the families who have returned. Amid the rubble lie dust-covered toys, scattered shoes, and faded posters of famous singers.

These standing but heavily damaged building blocks will likely all need to be demolished, as their structural integrity has been compromised by years of shelling. According to a recent World Bank study from 2025, the estimated damage to Syria’s housing stock exceeds $33 billion, not including wider damage to WASH and industrial facilities. The skeletal remains of the housing units testify to the intensity of weapons used in such densely populated areas, as well as to the extensive pillage carried out by government forces and their allies after they regained control of the camp in 2018. Roofs and walls were dismantled, and iron and wiring were stripped out and sold.Almost all of Yarmouk’s 18,000 inhabitants left, either fleeing the violence or finding nothing left to return to. Estimates of conflict debris generated by the war vary, as no nationwide assessment has been conducted. One World Bank study on damage in 14 Syrian cities estimated that over 210,000 housing units were destroyed, while a Jordanian study put the total at 142.5 million tonnes of conflict debris. This debris is often contaminated with hazardous materials such as asbestos, heavy metals, and other toxins that pose serious risks to civilians and ecosystems.

With limited support currently being given for rubble removal and reconstruction, local entrepreneurs are already starting to invest by making use of the remaining housing units in Yarmouk.  In a central square, building materials such as cement, sand, and machinery are being brought in to produce bricks used to seal off sections of the destroyed housing blocks, allowing residents to return.

Reconstruction materials being prepared at Yarmouk, Damascus. November 2025 (Image: Wim Zwijnenburg/PAX)

With millions of tons of conflict rubble and hundreds of thousands of houses in need of rebuilding, there are larger challenges over sustainable reconstruction. Recycling of building debris can already limit the environmental footprint of reconstruction, as this limits the extraction of new natural resources such as sand and stone. There are already lessons learned here from Iraq where UNEP and IOM initiated programming for debris recycling.  For the urban planning phase, there is a clear need for sustainable energy to curb back air pollution from generators cars and industrial sources, a need for sustainable materials, the use of green space and innovative architecture to prevent cities turning into toxic heat traps. The current focus by donors and international organisations in Ukraine that set up a platform for green recovery can be of guidance for the Syrian government and the international community. 

Building a Greener and Climate Resilient Syria

With discussions now taking place on setting priorities for rebuilding the country, Syrian civil society groups and the Syrian transitional government are actively engaging international actors to ensure that climate and environmental issues are central to the planning. PAX participated in an EU- and German think tank Adelphi–led consultation on Syria’s climate security concerns, and the EU, in coordination with Syrian civil society and the Syrian transitional government, organized a Day of Dialogue in Damascus. During both meetings, there was a clear understanding that sustainable recovery is key to making Syria livable again. In particular, concerns around water, agriculture, the clearance of unexploded ordnance, and reconstruction and related natural resources were raised, as well as wider issues around housing, land and property rights. The latter is of concern for farmers returning to areas where displaced groups have taken over land or where land has been confiscated.

To effectively address the challenges ahead, clear lines of responsibility and strengthened capacity across different governmental branches are of utmost importance. The Syrian Ministry for Emergencies and Disaster Response is leading on the environment and climate agenda and is in charge of the Syrian Civil Defence. They are bringing in their expertise from years of working on UXO clearance and environmental and natural hazard risks in their operations. More collaboration with the Ministry of Local Administration and Environment and the newly formed Ministry of Energy (which includes the former Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Oil and Natural Resources and Ministry of Electricity) is essential for data sharing, expertise development and ensuring that all environmental issues—from planning and regulation to implementation and monitoring—are addressed.

With growing climate pressures on water resources, managing access to water will also be a major challenge ahead, yet it also provides entry points for environmental peacebuilding, as sharing resources can be a constructive path forward.  What becomes clear from the decade long work of PAX with Syrian partners and conversations over the last few months is that Syrian civil society groups are eager to contribute to this process with their expertise, enthusiasm and unrelenting energy to make the country livable for them and future generations. 

With thanks to Aiham Alahmar for supporting the field work and translation.

Read more on our work on Conflict, Environment and Climate in Syria

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